Why Donald Trump Secured a Breakthrough in the Middle East But Struggles Regarding Putin Over the Ukraine Conflict

Trump and Putin's planned talks on the near four-year war in Ukraine have been put on hold
Trump and Vladimir Putin's scheduled negotiations on the almost four-year conflict in the region have been postponed indefinitely.

Accounts of an impending US-Russia leadership summit have been overstated, it seems.

Only a few days after Donald Trump said he planned to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the high-level talks has been put off without a new date.

A preliminary get-together by the both countries' leading diplomats has been called off, as well.

"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," President Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a waste of time, so I'll see what transpires."
  • Trump states he wished to avoid a 'unproductive session' after plan for negotiations with Putin postponed
  • Letdown in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington empty-handed

The on-again, off-again meeting is just the latest twist in the president's efforts to mediate an end to hostilities in Ukraine – a topic of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and prisoner exchange agreement in Gaza.

During a speech in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed his lead diplomatic negotiator, with a new request.

"We have to get the Russian situation done," he declared.

Nonetheless, the circumstances that converged to make a Middle East success achievable for the negotiation team may be challenging to replicate in a Ukraine war that has been raging for almost four years.

Reduced Influence

According to the lead negotiator, the crucial element to achieving a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike representatives of Hamas in the Gulf state. It was a action that angered US partners in the Arab world but gave Trump leverage to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.

The US president benefited from a long record of siding with the Israeli state since his initial presidency, including his choice to move the US embassy to the contested city, to change US policy on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against Iran.

The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than their prime minister – a position that provided him with special sway over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, by contrast, the president has significantly reduced influence. In recent months, he has vacillated between efforts to strong-arm Putin and then Zelensky, all with little seeming effect.

Trump has warned to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

At the same time, the US leader has publicly berated Ukraine's president, temporarily cutting off information exchange with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - then to back off in the wake of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.

Trump often boasts about his ability to meet and negotiate agreements, but his personal discussions with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders have not appeared to advance the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

Trump and Putin's meeting in August yielded no concrete results
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin's meeting in August produced no concrete results.

The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a settlement – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a means of manipulating him.

In July, Russia's leader agreed to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That bill was subsequently delayed.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and Patriot anti-air batteries to Kyiv, the president of Russia called Trump who then promoted the possible meeting in Budapest.

The following day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed without agreements after a reportedly strained discussion.

Trump insisted that he was not being played by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by skilled operators, and I came out really well," he said.
Sequence of events in Ukraine diplomacy

But the Ukrainian leader subsequently commented on the timeline of developments.

"Once the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for our nation – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he said.

Thus, in a short period, the president has bounced from entertaining the prospect of providing weapons to the Eastern European country to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and privately pressuring Zelensky to cede the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has ultimately settled on advocating a ceasefire along current battle lines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that commitment, saying that concluding the hostilities is proving more difficult than he anticipated.

It has been a uncommon admission of the limits of his power – and the difficulty of finding a framework for peace when both parties desires, or can afford to, give up the fight.

Anthony Johnson
Anthony Johnson

A passionate astrophysicist and writer, sharing insights on space missions and emerging tech trends.